QUIET MONDAY KICKS OFF ACTIVE WEEK IN THE MARKET
After a hectic first week of March, the economic calendar will see a much lighter schedule on Monday. However, action will pick up 24 hours later and continue throughout the week, giving market participants the latest information on the US and European economies.
The European release schedule begins at 10:00 GMT with a report on Greek industrial production for February. The January data set showed a 0.2% annualized increase.
One hour later, Portugal will report on the global trade balance as well as the consumer price index (CPI).
Shifting gears to North America, the US Financial Management Service will release its monthly budget statement. The February statement is expected to show a deficit of $222.6 billion, following a surplus of $49 billion the month before.
A relatively quiet release schedule on Monday will allow traders to digest last Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report. The report showed the creation of 313,000 jobs in February, the fastest in a year-and-a-half. Wage inflation was relatively subdued compared to the previous month as unemployment held steady at 4.1%.
The stronger than expected jobs report all but assures traders that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its forthcoming policy meeting on 20-21 March. The rate statement will also be accompanied by a quarterly summary of economic projections.
On Tuesday, market participants can expect headline CPI data from the United States, as well as a key monetary policy speech from Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz.
In currency news, the US dollar was relatively unchanged against a basket of its main competitors Monday. The DXY index was last seen trading at 90.04, where it was down 0.1% from the previous close.
Europe’s common currency lost momentum on Friday, reversing a high of 1.2439 all the way back down to the low 1.2300 region. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD exchange rate was up 0.1% at 1.2318. The pair is supported at 1.2273, which corresponds with the 50-day simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the psychological 1.2400 level.
Cable also backtracked on Friday following the upbeat nonfarm payrolls data. However, the pullback wasn’t nearly as severe as the one seen in the EUR/USD. The GBP/USD hovered in the mid-1.3800 region at the start of Asian trading on Monday. The pair remains well supported above the March low of 1.3712.
After two days of recovery, the USD/JPY was trading slightly lower on Monday, falling 0.2% to 106.61. The bulls are eyeing a break of the 108 handle to keep the rally alive, although that could prove to be a difficult sell. The pair faces an immediate resistance band around 107.20.