GERMAN TRADE DATA HEADLINES SLOW MONDAY SESSION IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
Monday is expected to be a slow session from the perspective of economic data, with only a few European reports scheduled to make headlines. This will give investors more time to absorb Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report, which is arguably the most closely watched data release of the month.
Action begins with a report on Swiss unemployment. Switzerland’s jobless rate is forecast to rise slightly to 2.7% in June compared with 2.6% the month before. This will be followed by a report from the German government detailing the national trade balance for May. Berlin’s surplus is projected to widen slightly to €20 billion from €19.4 billion in April.
Later in the session, Sentix will report on Eurozone investor confidence for July. The confidence index is forecast to fall to 7.9 in July compared with 9.3 in June.
In terms of monetary policy, the Bank of England’s Ben Broadbent will deliver a speech at 07:50 GMT. In North America, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Neel Kashkari will deliver a speech at 13:10 GMT.
On Friday, the US Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose by 213,000 last month, following an upwardly revised gain of 244,000 in May. Analysts in a median estimate had called for a gain of 195,000 for June. Average hourly earnings were less than desirable at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% annually.
In terms of upcoming releases, Chinese inflation data will make headlines early on Tuesday. Later in the day, the UK government will release revised Q1 GDP, manufacturing production, industrial production and the goods trade balance for the month of May.
Europe’s common currency maintained its uptrend on Monday, as the EUR/USD exchange rate edged up 0.1% to 1.1753. The pair has gained more than 100 pips over the past five sessions, with the bulls eyeing immediate resistance at 1.1765. On the opposite side of the spectrum, immediate support is located at 1.1720.
Cable regained momentum last week, with prices coming within a few pips of the 1.3300 level. However, gains have stalled following David Davis’ resignation as Brexit secretary. The GBP/USD exchange rate now sits at 1.3290. Immediate resistance is likely found at 1.3315, followed by 1.3350. On the flipside, immediate support levels include 1.3250 and 1.3210.
After finally breaking above 111.00 last week, USD/JPY has fallen back into a familiar range. USD/JPY is currently trading around 110.40, which puts it above its long-term DMAs. Market participants are eyeing 110.25, the weekly low, as the next critical test of support. A break below that level could ignite a bigger reversal for the pair.